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Investment Visual

All Weather Portfolio

Feb 6, 2006 – Sep 24, 2026, Rebalanced annually

Backtest it
All WeatherS&P 500
Final balance$37,749$88,469
CAGR6.65%11.15%
Max drawdown−23.78%−55.19%
Sharpe ratio0.840.65

Allocation

  • VTIUS total stock market30%
  • TLTLong-term Treasuries40%
  • IEFIntermediate Treasuries15%
  • DBCCommodities7.5%
  • GLDGold7.5%

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Growth of $10,000

  • All Weather
  • S&P 500

Metrics

ReturnAll WeatherS&P 500
Final balance$37,749$88,469
Total return277.49%784.69%
CAGR6.65%11.15%
Calendar yearsAll WeatherS&P 500
Best year18.28%32.31%
Worst year−19.23%−36.80%
Positive years16 of 1916 of 19
RiskAll WeatherS&P 500
Max drawdown−23.78%−55.19%
Longest drawdown3.8 years4.9 years
Volatility (annualized)8.09%19.23%
Risk-adjustedAll WeatherS&P 500
Sharpe ratio0.840.65
Sortino ratio1.200.91
Calmar ratio0.280.20

Worst drawdowns

DeclinePeakBottomRecovered
−23.8%Nov 2021Oct 2022Aug 2025
−14.5%May 2008Nov 2008Dec 2008
−14.1%Dec 2008Mar 2009Sep 2009
−14.0%Mar 2020Mar 2020Jun 2020
−8.5%Feb 2015Jan 2016Jun 2016

Annual returns

YearAll WeatherS&P 500
2006*+6.08%+13.93%
2007+11.94%+5.15%
2008+3.16%−36.80%
2009+1.98%+26.35%
2010+13.33%+15.06%
2011+16.76%+1.89%
2012+7.21%+15.99%
2013+1.07%+32.31%
2014+13.77%+13.46%
2015−3.25%+1.23%
2016+6.46%+12.00%
2017+11.75%+21.71%
2018−3.08%−4.57%
2019+18.28%+31.22%
2020+16.36%+18.33%
2021+8.16%+28.73%
2022−19.23%−18.18%
2023+9.96%+26.18%
2024+5.99%+24.89%
2025+13.42%+17.72%
2026*+4.51%+13.38%

* Partial year

About the All Weather Portfolio

Bridgewater, the firm Ray Dalio founded, runs a fund called All Weather. This is a simpler version that Dalio gave Tony Robbins for his 2014 book Money: Master the Game. The book calls it the All Seasons portfolio.

Bonds swing less than stocks, so it holds more of them, 55% in Treasuries against 30% in stocks. Gold and commodities are there for inflation. It lags stocks in strong markets, and it fell hard in 2022, when rising rates hit long-term bonds.

The All Weather Portfolio returned 6.7% a year from Feb 2006 to Sep 2026, against 11.1% for the S&P 500. Its biggest drop was 23.8%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500. It took 3.8 years to recover. It beat the S&P 500 in 5 of 19 full years.

Uses daily closing prices with dividends reinvested. Fund fees are included, but not taxes or trading costs. The backtest starts on Feb 6, 2006, the first day all five funds have prices. The S&P 500 is SPY.

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