Skip to content
Investment Visual

Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Nov 18, 2004 – Sep 24, 2026, Rebalanced annually

Backtest it
Golden ButterflyS&P 500
Final balance$51,992$96,443
CAGR7.84%10.93%
Max drawdown−19.57%−55.19%
Sharpe ratio0.920.65

Allocation

  • VTIUS total stock market20%
  • VBRUS small-cap value20%
  • TLTLong-term Treasuries20%
  • SHYShort-term Treasuries20%
  • GLDGold20%

Loading the growth chart…

Growth of $10,000

  • Golden Butterfly
  • S&P 500

Metrics

ReturnGolden ButterflyS&P 500
Final balance$51,992$96,443
Total return419.92%864.43%
CAGR7.84%10.93%
Calendar yearsGolden ButterflyS&P 500
Best year19.81%32.31%
Worst year−12.96%−36.80%
Positive years17 of 2118 of 21
RiskGolden ButterflyS&P 500
Max drawdown−19.57%−55.19%
Longest drawdown2.4 years4.9 years
Volatility (annualized)8.66%18.85%
Risk-adjustedGolden ButterflyS&P 500
Sharpe ratio0.920.65
Sortino ratio1.310.91
Calmar ratio0.400.20

Worst drawdowns

DeclinePeakBottomRecovered
−19.6%May 2008Mar 2009Sep 2009
−18.9%Nov 2021Oct 2022Mar 2024
−16.1%Feb 2020Mar 2020Jul 2020
−8.5%Jan 2018Dec 2018Feb 2019
−8.4%Jan 2015Jan 2016Apr 2016

Annual returns

YearGolden ButterflyS&P 500
2004*+1.39%+2.27%
2005+8.09%+4.83%
2006+12.47%+15.85%
2007+9.31%+5.15%
2008−4.74%−36.80%
2009+12.49%+26.35%
2010+16.62%+15.06%
2011+8.35%+1.89%
2012+8.93%+15.99%
2013+5.70%+32.31%
2014+9.74%+13.46%
2015−3.29%+1.23%
2016+9.55%+12.00%
2017+11.06%+21.71%
2018−3.92%−4.57%
2019+17.76%+31.22%
2020+14.59%+18.33%
2021+8.86%+28.73%
2022−12.96%−18.18%
2023+12.33%+26.18%
2024+11.75%+24.89%
2025+19.81%+17.72%
2026*+3.75%+13.38%

* Partial year

About the Golden Butterfly Portfolio

The Golden Butterfly comes from the Portfolio Charts website. It's the Permanent Portfolio plus small-cap value stocks, which raises stocks from 25% to 40%.

The extra stocks add growth in good years. Bonds and gold still cushion the bad ones.

The Golden Butterfly Portfolio returned 7.8% a year from Nov 2004 to Sep 2026, against 10.9% for the S&P 500. Its biggest drop was 19.6%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500. It took 1.3 years to recover. It beat the S&P 500 in 8 of 21 full years.

Uses daily closing prices with dividends reinvested. Fund fees are included, but not taxes or trading costs. The backtest starts on Nov 18, 2004, the first day all five funds have prices. The S&P 500 is SPY.

Other portfolios