Nov 18, 2004 – Oct 2, 2026, Rebalanced annually, GLD sets the start date
| Final balance | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permanent Portfolio | $45,871 | +7.21% | −19.03% | 0.97 |
| Golden Butterfly | $51,537 | +7.79% | −19.57% | 0.91 |
Growth of $10,000
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Key metrics
| Return | Permanent Portfolio | Golden Butterfly |
|---|---|---|
| Final balance | $45,871 | $51,537 |
| Total return | +358.71% | +415.37% |
| CAGR | +7.21% | +7.79% |
| Calendar years | Permanent Portfolio | Golden Butterfly |
|---|---|---|
| Best year | +22.49% | +19.81% |
| Worst year | −13.85% | −12.96% |
| Positive years | 17 of 21 | 17 of 21 |
| Risk | Permanent Portfolio | Golden Butterfly |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown | −19.03% | −19.57% |
| Longest drawdown | 2.5 years | 2.4 years |
| Volatility (annualized) | 7.47% | 8.67% |
| Risk-adjusted | Permanent Portfolio | Golden Butterfly |
|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratio | 0.97 | 0.91 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.39 | 1.30 |
| Calmar ratio | 0.38 | 0.40 |
Trailing returns
| Period | Permanent Portfolio | Golden Butterfly | Permanent Portfolio − Golden Butterfly |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.53% | +2.84% | −2.31% |
| 1Y | +4.51% | +6.42% | −1.90% |
| 3Y | +14.94% | +15.36% | −0.42% |
| 5Y | +6.42% | +6.90% | −0.48% |
| 10Y | +6.70% | +7.47% | −0.76% |
| 15Y | +6.09% | +7.45% | −1.36% |
| 20Y | +7.11% | +7.68% | −0.57% |
Rolling returns
| Period | Permanent Portfolio median | Golden Butterfly median | More often ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | +8.41% | +9.05% | Golden Butterfly 60% |
| 3Y | +6.52% | +7.00% | Golden Butterfly 70% |
| 5Y | +6.49% | +7.43% | Golden Butterfly 77% |
| 10Y | +6.52% | +7.43% | Golden Butterfly 100% |
Worst drawdowns · Permanent Portfolio
| Decline | Peak | Bottom | Recovered | Length |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −19.0% | Nov 2021 | Oct 2022 | May 2024 | 2.5 years |
| −14.1% | Mar 2008 | Nov 2008 | Aug 2009 | 1.4 years |
| −11.1% | Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 2 months |
| −8.0% | Jul 2016 | Dec 2016 | Aug 2017 | 1.1 years |
| −8.0% | May 2006 | Jun 2006 | Nov 2006 | 6 months |
| Decline | Peak | Bottom | Recovered | Length |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −19.6% | May 2008 | Mar 2009 | Sep 2009 | 1.3 years |
| −18.9% | Nov 2021 | Oct 2022 | Mar 2024 | 2.4 years |
| −16.1% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 months |
| −8.5% | Jan 2018 | Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 1.1 years |
| −8.4% | Jan 2015 | Jan 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1.2 years |
Annual returns
| Year | Permanent Portfolio | Golden Butterfly | Permanent Portfolio − Golden Butterfly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +10.87% | +11.06% | −0.19% |
| 2018 | −1.83% | −3.92% | +2.09% |
| 2019 | +16.51% | +17.76% | −1.25% |
| 2020 | +16.77% | +14.59% | +2.17% |
| 2021 | +4.05% | +8.86% | −4.81% |
| 2022 | −13.85% | −12.96% | −0.89% |
| 2023 | +11.42% | +12.33% | −0.92% |
| 2024 | +11.58% | +11.75% | −0.16% |
| 2025 | +22.49% | +19.81% | +2.68% |
| 2026to Oct 2 | +0.53% | +2.84% | −2.31% |
Holdings
About Permanent Portfolio vs Golden Butterfly
The Golden Butterfly is the Permanent Portfolio with small-cap value stocks added. Both hold US stocks, long-term Treasuries, short-term Treasuries and gold. The Permanent Portfolio splits them into quarters; the Golden Butterfly adds a fifth slice for small-cap value, so it holds 40% in stocks against 25%.
The Permanent Portfolio returned 7.2% a year from Nov 2004 to Oct 2026, against 7.8% for the Golden Butterfly. The Permanent Portfolio fell furthest in 2021–2022, by 19.0%, and the Golden Butterfly in 2008–2009, by 19.6%. The Golden Butterfly beat the Permanent Portfolio in 13 of 21 full years and in every rolling 10-year period.
Daily closes with dividends reinvested and fund fees included, before taxes and trading costs. Both rebalance once a year. The comparison starts on Nov 18, 2004, when GLD's prices begin.