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Investment Visual

Larry Portfolio

Jan 11, 2007 – Sep 23, 2026, Rebalanced annually

Backtest it
Larry PortfolioS&P 500
Final balance$23,173$77,419
CAGR4.36%10.95%
Max drawdown−16.71%−55.19%
Sharpe ratio0.800.63

Allocation

  • IJSUS small-cap value14%
  • DLSInternational small-cap10.5%
  • EEMEmerging markets3.5%
  • IEIIntermediate Treasuries72%

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Growth of $10,000

  • Larry Portfolio
  • S&P 500

Metrics

ReturnLarry PortfolioS&P 500
Final balance$23,173$77,419
Total return131.73%674.19%
CAGR4.36%10.95%
Calendar yearsLarry PortfolioS&P 500
Best year10.70%32.31%
Worst year−10.97%−36.80%
Positive years15 of 1815 of 18
RiskLarry PortfolioS&P 500
Max drawdown−16.71%−55.19%
Longest drawdown4 years4.9 years
Volatility (annualized)5.55%19.57%
Risk-adjustedLarry PortfolioS&P 500
Sharpe ratio0.800.63
Sortino ratio1.150.89
Calmar ratio0.260.20

Worst drawdowns

DeclinePeakBottomRecovered
−16.7%Jun 2021Sep 2022Jun 2025
−12.3%Apr 2008Mar 2009Aug 2009
−9.1%Jan 2020Mar 2020Jun 2020
−5.6%Jan 2018Dec 2018Mar 2019
−4.8%Apr 2015Jan 2016Mar 2016

Annual returns

YearLarry PortfolioS&P 500
2007*+8.41%+4.75%
2008−1.27%−36.80%
2009+8.22%+26.35%
2010+10.62%+15.06%
2011+3.80%+1.89%
2012+7.04%+15.99%
2013+6.81%+32.31%
2014+2.26%+13.46%
2015+0.43%+1.23%
2016+6.35%+12.00%
2017+7.11%+21.71%
2018−3.34%−4.57%
2019+10.45%+31.22%
2020+5.83%+18.33%
2021+3.55%+28.73%
2022−10.97%−18.18%
2023+7.17%+26.18%
2024+2.88%+24.89%
2025+10.70%+17.72%
2026*+2.47%+13.47%

* Partial year

About the Larry Portfolio

Larry Swedroe and Kevin Grogan laid out the Larry Portfolio in their 2014 book Reducing the Risk of Black Swans. Only 28% is in stocks, mostly small-cap value in the US and abroad, with a little in emerging markets. The other 72% is in intermediate Treasuries.

Over long periods, small-cap value stocks have beaten the broad market. Swedroe's idea is that a small amount of them can do the work of more ordinary stocks. Since 2007, though, both small-cap value and emerging markets have trailed large US stocks. The book picks emerging markets value stocks, and EEM, a broad emerging markets fund, stands in for them.

The Larry Portfolio returned 4.4% a year from Jan 2007 to Sep 2026, against 10.9% for the S&P 500. Its biggest drop was 16.7%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500. It took 4 years to recover. It beat the S&P 500 in 4 of 18 full years.

Uses daily closing prices with dividends reinvested. Fund fees are included, but not taxes or trading costs. The backtest starts on Jan 11, 2007, the first day all four funds have prices. The S&P 500 is SPY.

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