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Investment Visual

Merriman 4-Fund Portfolio

Jan 30, 2004 – Sep 24, 2026, Rebalanced annually

Backtest it
Merriman 4-FundS&P 500
Final balance$85,908$102,362
CAGR9.96%10.81%
Max drawdown−58.70%−55.19%
Sharpe ratio0.580.65

Allocation

  • SPYS&P 50025%
  • VTVUS large-cap value25%
  • VBUS small-cap25%
  • VBRUS small-cap value25%

Loading the growth chart…

Growth of $10,000

  • Merriman 4-Fund
  • S&P 500

Metrics

ReturnMerriman 4-FundS&P 500
Final balance$85,908$102,362
Total return759.08%923.62%
CAGR9.96%10.81%
Calendar yearsMerriman 4-FundS&P 500
Best year34.91%32.31%
Worst year−35.26%−36.80%
Positive years15 of 2118 of 21
RiskMerriman 4-FundS&P 500
Max drawdown−58.70%−55.19%
Longest drawdown3.8 years4.9 years
Volatility (annualized)19.96%18.64%
Risk-adjustedMerriman 4-FundS&P 500
Sharpe ratio0.580.65
Sortino ratio0.810.91
Calmar ratio0.170.20

Worst drawdowns

DeclinePeakBottomRecovered
−58.7%Jul 2007Mar 2009Apr 2011
−39.1%Feb 2020Mar 2020Nov 2020
−24.0%Apr 2011Oct 2011Mar 2012
−21.2%Jan 2022Sep 2022Dec 2023
−21.0%Sep 2018Dec 2018Jul 2019

Annual returns

YearMerriman 4-FundS&P 500
2004*+14.69%+8.55%
2005+6.38%+4.83%
2006+18.37%+15.85%
2007−0.13%+5.15%
2008−35.26%−36.80%
2009+28.44%+26.35%
2010+20.71%+15.06%
2011−1.00%+1.89%
2012+17.10%+15.99%
2013+34.91%+32.31%
2014+11.21%+13.46%
2015−2.06%+1.23%
2016+18.10%+12.00%
2017+16.73%+21.71%
2018−7.92%−4.57%
2019+26.75%+31.22%
2020+11.44%+18.33%
2021+25.23%+28.73%
2022−11.79%−18.18%
2023+17.43%+26.18%
2024+16.85%+24.89%
2025+12.74%+17.72%
2026*+13.69%+13.38%

* Partial year

About the Merriman 4-Fund Portfolio

Paul Merriman's 4-Fund Combo splits the money equally between the S&P 500, large-cap value, small-cap and small-cap value stocks. It holds no bonds.

Merriman's foundation says the mix earned an average of 11.7% a year from 1928 through 2020, against 10.0% for the S&P 500. Small and value stocks earned more over that stretch. Over the years on this page they lagged, and the combo trailed the S&P 500.

The Merriman 4-Fund Portfolio returned 10.0% a year from Jan 2004 to Sep 2026, against 10.8% for the S&P 500. Its biggest drop was 58.7%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500. It took 3.8 years to recover. It beat the S&P 500 in 9 of 21 full years.

Uses daily closing prices with dividends reinvested. Fund fees are included, but not taxes or trading costs. The backtest starts on Jan 30, 2004, the first day all four funds have prices. The S&P 500 is SPY.

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