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Investment Visual

No-Brainer Portfolio

Jul 30, 2002 – Sep 24, 2026, Rebalanced annually

Backtest it
No-BrainerS&P 500
Final balance$64,408$131,039
CAGR8.02%11.24%
Max drawdown−44.52%−55.19%
Sharpe ratio0.610.66

Allocation

  • SPYS&P 50025%
  • IWMUS small-cap25%
  • EFAInternational developed25%
  • SHYShort-term Treasuries25%

Loading the growth chart…

Growth of $10,000

  • No-Brainer
  • S&P 500

Metrics

ReturnNo-BrainerS&P 500
Final balance$64,408$131,039
Total return544.08%1210.39%
CAGR8.02%11.24%
Calendar yearsNo-BrainerS&P 500
Best year29.65%32.31%
Worst year−26.34%−36.80%
Positive years18 of 2320 of 23
RiskNo-BrainerS&P 500
Max drawdown−44.52%−55.19%
Longest drawdown3.3 years4.9 years
Volatility (annualized)14.42%18.77%
Risk-adjustedNo-BrainerS&P 500
Sharpe ratio0.610.66
Sortino ratio0.850.94
Calmar ratio0.180.20

Worst drawdowns

DeclinePeakBottomRecovered
−44.5%Oct 2007Mar 2009Feb 2011
−26.4%Feb 2020Mar 2020Sep 2020
−22.0%Nov 2021Sep 2022Feb 2024
−18.4%Apr 2011Oct 2011Sep 2012
−15.6%Aug 2018Dec 2018Jul 2019

Annual returns

YearNo-BrainerS&P 500
2002*−2.54%−2.07%
2003+29.65%+28.18%
2004+12.09%+10.70%
2005+6.04%+4.83%
2006+15.95%+15.85%
2007+5.17%+5.15%
2008−26.34%−36.80%
2009+20.55%+26.35%
2010+13.11%+15.06%
2011−3.33%+1.89%
2012+12.93%+15.99%
2013+23.17%+32.31%
2014+3.19%+13.46%
2015−0.95%+1.23%
2016+8.95%+12.00%
2017+15.41%+21.71%
2018−7.01%−4.57%
2019+20.51%+31.22%
2020+12.25%+18.33%
2021+13.50%+28.73%
2022−14.23%−18.18%
2023+16.38%+26.18%
2024+10.92%+24.89%
2025+16.72%+17.72%
2026*+9.84%+13.38%

* Partial year

About the No-Brainer Portfolio

William Bernstein, a neurologist who writes about investing, laid out this mix in his 2000 book The Intelligent Asset Allocator. It's also called the Simpleton's Portfolio. It splits the money equally between four index funds.

Three hold stocks, in the S&P 500, small US companies and developed markets abroad. SPY, IWM and EFA track the indexes the book names. The fourth holds short-term US bonds, which lose little when interest rates rise, so that quarter held up in 2022.

The No-Brainer Portfolio returned 8.0% a year from Jul 2002 to Sep 2026, against 11.2% for the S&P 500. Its biggest drop was 44.5%, against 55.2% for the S&P 500. It took 3.3 years to recover. It beat the S&P 500 in 7 of 23 full years.

Uses daily closing prices with dividends reinvested. Fund fees are included, but not taxes or trading costs. The backtest starts on Jul 30, 2002, the first day all four funds have prices. The S&P 500 is SPY.

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