No-Brainer Portfolio
Jul 30, 2002 – Nov 12, 2026, Rebalanced annually, SHY starts Jul 30, 2002
| Final balance | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No-Brainer | $63,984 | +7.94% | −44.52% | 0.60 |
| S&P 500 | $129,320 | +11.11% | −55.19% | 0.66 |
| Final balance | CAGR | Max drawdown | Sharpe ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No-Brainer | $63,984 | +7.94% | −44.52% | 0.60 |
| S&P 500 | $129,320 | +11.11% | −55.19% | 0.66 |
| No-Brainer | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Final balance | $63,984 | $129,320 |
| CAGR | +7.94% | +11.11% |
| Max drawdown | −44.52% | −55.19% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.60 | 0.66 |
Loading the growth chart…
Growth of $10,000
Key metrics
| Return | No-Brainer | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Final balance | $63,984 | $129,320 |
| Total return | +539.84% | +1,193.20% |
| CAGR | +7.94% | +11.11% |
| Calendar years | No-Brainer | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Best year | +29.57% | +32.31% |
| Worst year | −26.34% | −36.80% |
| Positive years | 18 of 23 | 20 of 23 |
| Risk | No-Brainer | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown | −44.52% | −55.19% |
| Longest drawdown | 3.3 years | 4.9 years |
| Volatility (daily, annualized) | 14.41% | 18.76% |
| Risk-adjusted | No-Brainer | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratio | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.85 | 0.93 |
| Calmar ratio | 0.18 | 0.20 |
Annual returns
| Year | No-Brainer | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | +15.41% | +21.71% |
| 2018 | −7.01% | −4.57% |
| 2019 | +20.51% | +31.22% |
| 2020 | +12.25% | +18.33% |
| 2021 | +13.50% | +28.73% |
| 2022 | −14.23% | −18.18% |
| 2023 | +16.38% | +26.18% |
| 2024 | +10.92% | +24.89% |
| 2025 | +16.72% | +17.72% |
| 2026 to Nov 12 | +9.18% | +11.89% |
Worst drawdowns
| Decline | Peak | Bottom | Recovered | Length |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −44.5% | Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | Feb 2011 | 3.3 years |
| −26.4% | Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | Sep 2020 | 7 months |
| −22.0% | Nov 2021 | Sep 2022 | Feb 2024 | 2.3 years |
| −18.4% | Apr 2011 | Oct 2011 | Sep 2012 | 1.4 years |
| −15.6% | Aug 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jul 2019 | 10 months |
About the No-Brainer Portfolio
William Bernstein, a neurologist who writes about investing, laid out this mix in his 2000 book The Intelligent Asset Allocator. It's also called the Simpleton's Portfolio. It splits the money equally between four index funds.
Three hold stocks, in the S&P 500, small US companies and developed markets abroad. SPY, IWM and EFA track the indexes the book names. The fourth holds short-term US bonds, which lose little when interest rates rise, so that quarter held up in 2022.
Its worst fall took 3.3 years to recover, and it beat the S&P 500 in 7 of 23 full years.
Daily closes with dividends reinvested and fund fees included, before taxes and trading costs.